Examples of Assessing Community Needs and Resources
Demographic and Economic Profile
     Population Trends
     Geography
     Economy
Summary

Examples of Assessing Community Needs and Resources

The purpose of this section is to provide factual information about the county's population, economy, and health status. Reference data is included to give a meaningful background. The information is the basis upon which community leadership can undertake the planning process.

Demographic and Economic Profile

Population Trends:

The population of the state of Kansas has grown at a steady rate since 1960. The projection for the period from 1990 to 2030 is for continued growth but at a slower rate: the population grew at an annual rate of 4.8 percent from 1980 to 1990, but is expected to slow to 2.1 percent by 2030. The northeast and southwest regions of the state are projected to have an increase in population, while the number of people living in the northwest and southeast regions are projected to decrease. The age profile of the population is also undergoing a significant shift. The proportion of the Kansas population 65 and over is projected to increase from 13.8 percent in 1990 to 20.3 percent in 2030, while the proportion of the population under 18 is projected to decline from 28.1 percent to 24.4 percent over the same period. In those counties where the population is growing slowly or actually decreasing, the proportion of older citizens can be expected to increase at a faster rate. This population and age shift is caused largely by the migration of young people with their children away from rural communities to urban areas.

The projections are based on a specific set of assumptions and will be valid only if the assumptions hold. The projections should be regarded as an estimate of the future population based on a continuation of current trends. The assumptions and the future population would be influenced by change such as natural disaster, war, epidemic, or the economy. It is particularly important to understand that the population trends in an area are influenced by the economic conditions in that area and that those conditions can be altered significantly by the population living in the area as well as by outside forces.

The population of Ottawa County has declined since 1940, and this trend is projected to continue. In contrast, the state population has grown steadily. The population of the county is homogeneous with respect to race/ethnicity. Of the total population, only 0.6% is from a minority group.

The rate at which the average age of the population is increasing is expected to become even more rapid. The trend toward a population that is growing older on average is very significant for health and human services planners.

Geography:

Ottawa County is located in the north-central region of the state and encompasses 721 square miles. The county is considered to be 100% rural with a population density of 7.8 people per square mile.

Ottawa County Hospital, with 30 beds, is located in Minneapolis. The closest large hospitals are 25 miles to the south in Salina. Tertiary care hospitals are located 111 miles to the south in Wichita and to the east 123 and 188 miles in Topeka and Kansas City, respectively.

Economy:

The unemployment rate in Ottawa County is 3.7%. Nine percent of the population is below the poverty level, and 39% are below 200% of the poverty level. Nine percent of the population is eligible for Medicaid, and 7.2% are Medicaid recipients. Six percent receive food stamps, and 1.9% receives Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). These figures are approximately the same as the average of the other counties in the north-central region but are lower than for the state as a whole.

A preliminary review of employment in Ottawa County suggests that the health care industry is one of the larger employers and thus a significant segment of the economy. Additional employer information will be included in later sections.

Two measures of economic health are the strength index and the pull factor. The strength index is a measure of the economic prosperity of each of the 105 counties in Kansas. The index is derived from calculations using county wealth, personal income, and county employment for a period from July to June. The strength index for Ottawa County for 1992-93 was 2.32, placing the county 86th in a ranking of the 105 counties in the state. For all of the counties, the mean strength index was 2.55 and the median was 2.50. The counties ranged from a high of 4.62 (Johnson) to a low of 1.87 (Chautauqua).

The pull factor is an assessment of the strength of retail trade in a community. The factor is a measure of how well a community is attracting or losing business to other places. It is used to compare the magnitude of business activity in a county to the level of business activity in the state of Kansas on a per capita basis. A pull factor which is higher than 1.00 indicates that the community is attracting business on the whole, while a pull factor under 1.00 indicates that the community is losing business to other places. The period of time considered is from July to June.

The pull factor for Ottawa County for 1990 was 0.35, decreasing to 0.31 in 1994. These figures indicate that a significant portion of the population is going outside of the county to meet its retail needs. Of the 105 Kansas counties, only fifteen have pull factors greater than one. The counties range from a high pull factor of 1.71 (Seward) to a low of 0.25 (Wabaunsee).

Summary:

Ottawa County has experienced a declining population that is typical for many of the rural counties of Kansas. The age of the population is shifting to include a higher proportion of older citizens. The rate at which the shift is taking place is greater than that for the state as a whole.

The indicators reflect an economy that is relatively lethargic. A significant portion of the retail business and thus the county wealth is leaving the area.